For months, conservatives have been warning Americans about the supposed "Ferguson Effect." Murder rates in cities like St. Louis, Chicago, and Baltimore are rising, they claim, because police fear being criticized for doing their jobs, thus emboldening criminals to take advantage of their absence.
But while there are plenty of reasons to doubt the Ferguson Effect in the face of the continued declines in homicides nationwide and in places like New York City, many critics of the Black Lives Matter movement may have to answer for a real and growing threat to public safety. As the militia standoff in Oregon shows, the twin failures to punish right-wing domestic terrorism and even to "call it by its name" appear to be fueling more anti-government extremism.
For its part, the Southern Poverty Law Center this week left no doubt about what might be called the "Bundy Effect."
In its annual count of militias, released today, the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) identified 276 militia groups - up from 202 in 2014, a 37 percent increase.The number represents a renewal of growth after several years of declines. The movement grew explosively after President Obama was elected, from 42 groups in 2008 to a peak of 334 in 2011 before declining in recent years.
As Heidi Beirich, director of the SPLC's Intelligence Project put it, "We believe these armed extremists have been emboldened by what they saw as a clear victory at the Cliven Bundy ranch and the fact that no one was held accountable for taking up arms against agents of the federal government."
David Neiwert certainly agrees that "not punishing the Bundys for the Nevada standoff led to the occupation in Oregon." Neiwert, who for years has been tracking terror incidents from the collection of militia, sovereign citizen, anti-tax, anti-abortion, and anti-government extremists, explained the growing danger from those like Cliven Bundy's followers threatening violence against federal authorities:
If federal law enforcement authorities had taken their roles as stewards of the rule of law seriously, many of these players would be facing justice in federal courts right now, instead of opportunistically raising hell out in poverty-stricken rural areas. Certainly, there is no small irony in the fact that the tepid response from federal authorities demonstrates how little resemblance they have to the tyrannical thugs the Bundys say they are. But it also shows how just that accusation, when wielded by white conservatives, can cause federal law enforcement to back down.
Daryl Johnson knows that from personal experience. As The New York Times reported on Friday, Johnson was the analyst at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) whose 2009 report "warned of a growing antigovernment movement and the possible recruitment of returning military veterans that could lead to the potential emergence of terrorist groups or lone-wolf extremists."
His words drew fierce criticism from Republican lawmakers and conservative news media, labeling the report an unfair assessment of legitimate criticisms of the government. The document was retracted after Janet Napolitano, who was then the Homeland Security secretary, apologized to veterans, and the Extremism and Radicalization Branch was quietly dismantled.
"The D.H.S. is scoffing at the mission of doing domestic counterterrorism," Mr. Johnson said. "The same patterns that led to the growth of the antigovernment groups in the 1990s is being played out today. D.H.S. should be doing more."
It's no mystery as to why it's not.